AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF TIMBER DEMAND IN THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC
Keywords:
econometric modelling, timber demand, derived demand, quantitative market analysisAbstract
Generally, the timber market is affected by several factors that are reflected in the structure of the supplied and demanded quantities of timber assortments. Econometric modelling is widely used to identify and analyse such factors. This paper deals with the development and evaluation of an econometric model of timber demand on the domestic market of the Slovak Republic in the monitored period of the years 2000 – 2021. The timber demand is determined by two factors: the timber price and GDP. The analysis shows that the raw timber market can be characterized as a regular market with a declining demand curve and a relatively inelastic response concerning price changes. The influence of the GDP factor is more significant, which confirms the theory of the derived demand for wood from the demand for wood products. The results of econometric modelling make it possible to elaborate alternative ex-ante forecasts of timber market development and, as such, they may form the basis for the effective application of different economic and political tools in the forestry and forest-based industry.
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